--- title: "Deaths and migration by county (data) | Probative Growth" url: https://probativegrowth.com/data/population-change/ lang: en-US alternate: https://probativegrowth.com/es/datos/cambio-de-poblacion/ source: the same page, converted from its HTML at build time --- 1. [Home](https://probativegrowth.com/) 2. [Data](https://probativegrowth.com/data/) 3. Deaths and migration Data · Deaths and migration # Deaths, births, migration and older residents by county How many people die, are born and move in or out of every county each year, and how many residents are 65, 75 and 85 or older. The figures are the Census Bureau's own population estimates, and every state and the nation are checked against the Bureau's separate state file. In the year to July 1, 2025, the Census Bureau estimates 3,101,603 deaths and 3,620,461 births in the United States. Checked October 30, 2026 · CC BY 4.0 · Not legal advice ## What is in this dataset? {#what-h} The Census Bureau's population estimates for every U.S. county, every state and DC and the nation: deaths, births, international migration and domestic migration in the year to July 1, 2025 and summed over the five years since July 1, 2020, with the Bureau's own rates per 1,000 residents; residents on July 1, 2025 and on the April 1, 2020 estimates base; and residents aged 65 and over, 75 and over and 85 and over, with their share of all residents and the growth of the 65-and-over population since 2020. Counts only, from the Bureau's public Vintage 2025 files. Use it to size estate-planning, probate, elder-law and guardianship demand where it is: how many people die each year in a county (the estates that may need administering), how many residents are 75 or 85 and older and how fast the older population is growing; and to see where new residents arrive from abroad or from other counties, as context for immigration and real-estate work. Agents can look up a state and its counties, compare states, or search by county name or FIPS code. **Records** 3,196 **Look up by** 52 state **Primary-source records** 3,196 The letters are explained in [what P, S, D and U mean](https://probativegrowth.com/data/#status-codes). ## Where does the data come from? {#from-h} The Census Bureau publishes, each March, county population totals and components of change (births, deaths, international and domestic migration) and, each June, county population by age. Both Vintage 2025 files are read in full; county counts are kept as published, state figures are the state rows (ages summed from counties), and US counts are the sum of the states. A gate ties every state and the nation to the Bureau's separate national and state file, the county age totals to the county population totals, re-downloads the three files and re-derives 50 random records. **Period covered** April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2025 **Places** The whole US, all 50 states and DC and counties **How often we refresh it** Once a year **The source's next release** March 2027 **Records read** October 30, 2026 ### Official sources - [U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv), by bulk download. Census Bureau data products are works of the U.S. government: public domain (17 U.S.C. 105). - [U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program (county age and sex)](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/asrh/cc-est2025-agesex-all.csv), by bulk download. Public domain (17 U.S.C. 105). - [U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program (national and state totals)](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/state/totals/NST-EST2025-ALLDATA.csv), by bulk download. Public domain (17 U.S.C. 105). ### The sources the records cite most - [U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025: county population totals and components of change (co-est2025-alldata)](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv): 3,196 records - [U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025: county population by age and sex (cc-est2025-agesex-all)](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/asrh/cc-est2025-agesex-all.csv): 3,196 records - [U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025: national and state totals (NST-EST2025-ALLDATA)](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/state/totals/NST-EST2025-ALLDATA.csv): 1 record ## What does a record look like? {#sample-h} Florida, year to July 1, 2025 (Census estimates): 227,304 deaths, 225,971 births, +178,674 from international migration and +22,517 from moves within the U.S.; 23,462,518 residents, 5,346,788 of them aged 65 or older (22.8%) and 633,779 aged 85 or older. Status P · checked October 30, 2026 · source: [U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025: county population totals and components of change (co-est2025-alldata)](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv) Arizona, year to July 1, 2025 (Census estimates): 71,277 deaths, 78,926 births, +28,219 from international migration and +31,107 from moves within the U.S.; 7,623,818 residents, 1,571,773 of them aged 65 or older (20.6%) and 167,460 aged 85 or older. Status P · checked October 30, 2026 · source: [U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025: county population totals and components of change (co-est2025-alldata)](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv) United States, year to July 1, 2025 (Census estimates): 3,101,603 deaths, 3,620,461 births, +1,262,202 from international migration; 341,784,857 residents, 64,617,088 of them aged 65 or older (18.9%) and 7,041,036 aged 85 or older. Status P · checked October 30, 2026 · source: [U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025: county population totals and components of change (co-est2025-alldata)](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/counties/totals/co-est2025-alldata.csv) The full records add the dates, the quoted source text and every field in the CSV and JSON files below. **What each of the 37 main columns means** **`jurisdiction`** Two-letter state code (50 states and DC), or US **`level`** us, state or county **`area`** US, the 2-digit state FIPS code or the 5-digit county FIPS code (Connecticut: planning regions) **`areaName`** County and state, state name, or United States **`stateName`** State name (United States on the national record) **`year`** The estimates vintage: figures run to July 1 of this year **`period`** The latest estimate year: July 1 of the year before to June 30 of the vintage year **`status`** P: the Census Bureau's own estimate **`value`** Deaths in the latest estimate year (the same as deaths) **`population`** Residents on July 1 of the vintage year **`population_base`** Residents on the April 1, 2020 estimates base **`population_change_pct`** Change in residents since April 1, 2020, percent **`deaths`** Deaths in the latest estimate year **`deaths_5y`** Deaths in the five estimate years from July 1, 2020 **`death_rate`** Deaths per 1,000 residents in the latest year (Census Bureau rate) **`births`** Births in the latest estimate year **`births_5y`** Births in the five estimate years from July 1, 2020 **`birth_rate`** Births per 1,000 residents in the latest year (Census Bureau rate) **`natural_change`** Births minus deaths in the latest year **`international_migration`** Net international migration in the latest year **`international_migration_5y`** Net international migration over the five estimate years **`international_migration_rate`** Net international migration per 1,000 residents (Census Bureau rate) **`domestic_migration`** Net domestic migration in the latest year: moves between counties for a county, between states for a state (state and county records) **`domestic_migration_5y`** Net domestic migration over the five estimate years (state and county records) **`domestic_migration_rate`** Net domestic migration per 1,000 residents (state and county records) **`net_migration`** International plus domestic migration in the latest year **`net_migration_5y`** Net migration over the five estimate years **`net_migration_rate`** Net migration per 1,000 residents (Census Bureau rate) **`age_65plus`** Residents aged 65 and over on July 1 of the vintage year **`age_65plus_pct`** age_65plus as a percentage of residents **`age_65plus_base`** Residents aged 65 and over on April 1, 2020 **`age_65plus_change_pct`** Change in residents 65 and over since April 1, 2020, percent **`age_75plus`** Residents aged 75 and over **`age_75plus_pct`** age_75plus as a percentage of residents **`age_85plus`** Residents aged 85 and over **`age_85plus_pct`** age_85plus as a percentage of residents **`years`** Per estimate year (July 1 to June 30, keyed by the ending year): deaths, births, international migration, domestic migration, net migration and the population on July 1 (order in yearFields) ## How do I use it in my own tools? {#api-h} Ask an AI assistant: add `https://probativegrowth.com/mcp/population-change` as an MCP connector (no sign-in), or the main server `https://probativegrowth.com/mcp` for every dataset. Setup for each app is on [the API and MCP page](https://probativegrowth.com/resources/rules-api/). **`popchange_lookup`** For one two-letter state code (or US): the state record and every county in it, with deaths, births, international and domestic migration in the year to July 1, 2025 and over five years, the Census Bureau's rates per 1,000, and residents 65+, 75+ and 85+. Ages are Census estimates for July 1, 2025; legalneed_lookup gives ACS 2020-2024 averages of the same ages, which are lower. **`popchange_compare`** The records of up to 10 states (or US) side by side: deaths, births, migration and residents 65+, 75+ and 85+ for each state and its counties. **`popchange_search`** Records whose text matches the words given, such as a county name ("Maricopa"), a county FIPS code ("04013") or a state name. Or read the static files, with no key and no usage cap: - [Index and endpoints](https://probativegrowth.com/data/v1/population-change/index.json) `/data/v1/population-change/index.json` - [One state (AK shown)](https://probativegrowth.com/data/v1/population-change/jurisdictions/AK.json) `/data/v1/population-change/jurisdictions/{jurisdiction}.json` - [Confirmed changes](https://probativegrowth.com/data/v1/population-change/changes.json) `/data/v1/population-change/changes.json` - [OpenAPI description](https://probativegrowth.com/data/v1/population-change/openapi.json) `/data/v1/population-change/openapi.json` - [API reference, every file](https://probativegrowth.com/resources/rules-api/reference/) `/resources/rules-api/reference/` ## How to cite this dataset {#cite-h} You can reuse, adapt and republish this data, including commercially, under the [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license (CC BY 4.0)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). The only condition is that you credit Probative and link to the source. **Version** 1.0.0, released October 31, 2026 **DOI** [10.5281/zenodo.23845912](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23845912) **Every version** [10.5281/zenodo.23845911](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23845911) (always points to the newest) **License** [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) Download the data - [CSV: population-change.csv](https://probativegrowth.com/data/v1/population-change/population-change.csv) 3302 KB · one row per record (columns in README.txt) - [JSON: population-change.json](https://probativegrowth.com/data/v1/population-change/population-change.json) 7954 KB · every record with its sources Free, no email or login. The files are hosted on this site and [Zenodo](https://zenodo.org/records/23845912), a public research archive. Suggested citation Probative. (2026). Deaths, births, migration and older residents by county (Census population estimates), 2020 to 2025 (Version 1.0.0) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23845912 Credit line for a chart, table or article Source: Probative, Deaths, births, migration and older residents by county (Census population estimates), 2020 to 2025, version 1.0.0, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23845912, licensed CC BY 4.0. Add to a reference manager (Zotero, Mendeley, EndNote) - [RIS (EndNote, Zotero, Mendeley)](https://probativegrowth.com/data/v1/population-change/cite.ris) - [BibTeX (LaTeX)](https://probativegrowth.com/data/v1/population-change/cite.bib) - [CITATION.cff (GitHub, Zenodo)](https://probativegrowth.com/data/v1/population-change/CITATION.cff) - [codemeta.json](https://probativegrowth.com/data/v1/population-change/codemeta.json) - [SVG badge with the DOI](https://probativegrowth.com/data/badge/population-change.svg) Not legal advice. These are Census Bureau estimates built from birth and death records, tax and Medicare files and survey data, not counts of court cases or estates. A death is not a probate filing: many estates pass without one. Rates and shares are for planning, not for any one person's matter. ## What changed recently? {#chg-h} - **2026-10-30** · Census Bureau estimates of deaths, births, international and domestic migration and residents aged 65, 75 and 85 or older for every county, Vintage 2025: in the year to July 1, 2025 the United States recorded 3,101,603 deaths and 3,620,461 births, and 7,041,036 residents were 85 or older. ([source](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-counties-total.html)) The full log is in [changes.json](https://probativegrowth.com/data/v1/population-change/changes.json). ## What are the limits? {#limits-h} - These are estimates, not counts of court cases: a death is not a probate filing, and many estates pass without one. - An estimate year runs from July 1 to June 30; the latest one ends June 30, 2025, and the five-year sums start July 1, 2020. - Domestic migration is the net of moves between counties for a county and between states for a state, so the national record shows international migration only. - State and national ages are the sums of their counties; Connecticut is shown by its nine planning regions, as the Census Bureau publishes it. - The Census Bureau revises earlier years with each new vintage, so figures here replace those of the previous release. - The residents 65, 75 and 85 or older here are the Census Bureau's estimates for July 1, 2025; the legal-need dataset counts the same ages from the American Community Survey averaged over 2020 to 2024, so its figures are lower and the two should not be mixed. - Records older than 400 days since their last check are marked `stale` in the files until we re-check them. Every confirmed error we fix is listed in the [data corrections log](https://probativegrowth.com/data/corrections/). **Not legal advice.** These are Census Bureau estimates built from birth and death records, tax and Medicare files and survey data, not counts of court cases or estates. A death is not a probate filing: many estates pass without one. Rates and shares are for planning, not for any one person's matter. Probative is a marketing firm, not a law firm. Found a wrong value? [Report an error](https://probativegrowth.com/data/corrections/#report) with the record id and the source that shows the right value. 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The full list is in the [data catalog](https://probativegrowth.com/data/). Running a firm? You don’t need the raw data: we handle your state’s ad rules for you. See where your firm stands first. From Probative, the agency A note about our own services, apart from the data: the county death, migration and older-resident estimates help shape [how we market estate planning firms](https://probativegrowth.com/practice-areas/estate-planning/), [how estate planning firms appear in search and AI answers](https://probativegrowth.com/practice-areas/estate-planning/seo/) and [how we market immigration firms](https://probativegrowth.com/practice-areas/immigration/). Published by Probative Growth, a marketing agency for law firms. See our [services](https://probativegrowth.com/services/) and [pricing](https://probativegrowth.com/pricing/). Free ## Get your free review. {#end-h} Send us your firm’s website. Probative Growth records a 90-second video of what clients see when they look you up, and emails it with a one-page summary within 2 business days. No logins, no call needed. [Not sure where to start? Answer 7 questions](https://probativegrowth.com/law-firm-marketing-checklist/) [Ready to talk? Talk to us](https://probativegrowth.com/contact/#consult) [Or see what AI says about your firm](https://probativegrowth.com/ai-check/) **Your free review:** It covers your Google listing, website, phone and ads, from public information. [See every price](https://probativegrowth.com/pricing/) Practice areas We file the data on this page under the practice areas [estate planning](https://probativegrowth.com/practice-areas/estate-planning/), [immigration](https://probativegrowth.com/practice-areas/immigration/) and [medical malpractice](https://probativegrowth.com/practice-areas/medical-malpractice/). From Probative, the agency Want to act on the county death, migration and older-resident estimates? Start with [local SEO and Google Business Profile work](https://probativegrowth.com/services/local-seo/). Then look at [our Google Ads management](https://probativegrowth.com/services/google-ads/).