Value bands and expected case value

Value bands are up to four groups of case value, built only from the firm’s own closed cases, that tell ad platforms which leads matter most. Platforms learn faster from values than from counts, so each band carries one representative value. A case’s own fee never leaves the firm.

Expected case value

Expected case value for a case type is the average net fee on the firm’s resolved signed cases of that type over the last 24 to 36 months. Net fee = fee received − unrecovered case costs − fees shared with co-counsel or referring lawyers. Fee timing isn’t discounted here.

Minimum data. A case type needs at least 20 resolved cases for its own value; below that it pools with the nearest type, then with the firm’s average for the practice area. A firm without usable fee history gives a written estimate from its managing partner, labeled “estimated” and replaced by realized fees as cases resolve. We never use another firm’s values.

Bands and stage values

• Bands. Values are grouped into at most four bands, A to D, each represented by its median, rounded to the nearest $500.
• Stage value = the probability of signing within 90 days, given the stage, case type and language, × the band value. The probability comes from the firm’s last 12 months; each case type and language needs at least 30 leads that reached the stage, or it pools across languages, then case types.
• Expected pipeline value = the sum of stage values across open leads, labeled “expected, not booked”.
• Recalibration every quarter, from realized fees and outcomes, with each change dated.

What goes to ad platforms

• Uploads are allowed and used. Google’s personalized-advertising policy restricts audiences in sensitive categories; it governs who sees ads, not which conversions a firm imports for bidding (Google).
• Client lists never become audiences. No Customer Match or lookalike audiences, in injury or any practice we serve, and remarketing only where each platform’s policy allows it.
• Standard level (the default): a click ID, a neutral stage name, the band value and a timestamp.
• Enhanced level (optional): adds hashed email and phone, computed at upload and never stored. Off by default; switched on for a practice only after counsel confirms Google’s customer data policy permits it, with consent at intake and the responsible attorney’s written sign-off. Hashing isn’t anonymization (FTC). Never used for disability, criminal, family, bankruptcy or immigration work, which stay at the standard level (Google).
• Never sent: names or contact details in the clear, injuries or medical details, immigration status, case facts or opposing parties, recordings. No personal data goes to analytics tools.
• The responsible attorney decides the upload level before anything is sent, and can change it at any time. In each bidding goal, one stage is primary and the others secondary, so no case counts twice.

Cite as: The Probative Standard v1.0, Value bands. Last reviewed October 24, 2026, by the Probative editorial team.